Model Development of Dam Break Risk Classification

Abstract

This research intends to develop the risk classification assessment model of dam break based on the population number speed and land use change in the dam downstream. This research is conducted in 10 dams in Indonesia as follow: Bintang Bano, Rotiklot, Napungette, Lolak, Kuwil, Pandanduri, Batu Nampar, Kengkang, Sepit, and Jangkih Jawa. The methodology consists of data collecting, analysis of land use change, analysis of impacted area, analysis of risk class assessment due to dam break, than to build a model development pf dam break risk classification. The affected variables to the model ia analyzed by using SemPls and the model isbuilt by using the help of GRG. By using the coefficient values of variables and indicators, and the index weight of the variables, there is obtained the model development of dam break risk classification as follow:

FRtot = 0,149 FRk + 0,11 FRt + 0,242 FRe + 0,252 FRh + 0,112 FRpd + 0,134 FR

The RMSE value for validation the model is 0.29 (close to zero), It shows that the model has high enough accuracy. By using the other method for validation such as NSE, it is obtained the value of NSE is about 0.56. It indicates that the model can be satisfied interpreted.